AustralieFrV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 008007

Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

Identifieur interne : 008007 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 008006; suivant : 008008

Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

Auteurs : Efrat Morin [Israël] ; Yael Jacoby [Israël] ; Shilo Navon [Israël] ; Erez Bet-Halachmi [Israël]

Source :

Advances in water resources [ 0309-1708 ] ; 2009.

RBID : Pascal:10-0162124

Descripteurs français

Pascal (Inist)
- Crue, Prévision, Méthode radar, Pluie, Modèle, Climat, Précipitation atmosphérique, Bassin versant, Infiltration, Ecoulement, Etalonnage, Probabilité, Détection, Méthode Monte Carlo, Incertitude, Ressource eau, Simulation numérique, Modèle hydrologique, Eau pluie, Ruissellement, Mer Morte, Israël.
Wicri :
- geographic : Israël.
- topic : Climat.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Dead Sea, Israel, Monte Carlo analysis, atmospheric precipitation, calibration, climate, detection, digital simulation, drainage basins, floods, flow, hydrological modeling, infiltration, models, prediction, probability, radar methods, rain water, rainfall, runoff, uncertainties, water resources.

Abstract

Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model which utilizes radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on the 5 years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent 5-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire 10-year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

Affiliations:

Israël

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Le document en format XML

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model which utilizes radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on the 5 years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent 5-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire 10-year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.</div>
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Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri